tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2171 United Flight history → ONT 06:10 ORD 12:25 7% 2% 0.7% 91%
UA 2226 United Flight history → ONT 07:01 ORD 13:03 10% 3% 0.7% 76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ONT 18:39 → SFO 20:07UA 5624 · flown by SkyWest 3h 23m San Francisco SFO 23:30 → ORD 05:57 +1UA 368 9h 18m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446 1h 15m Denver DEN 09:35 → ORD 13:15UA 2329 6h 15m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → ONT 11:48 → ATL 19:15DL 665 3h 25m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → ORD 23:53DL 1199 10h 05m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → ONT 10:25 → DFW 15:37AA 2238 3h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:28 → ORD 22:15AA 3531 · flown by Envoy 9h 50m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → ONT 11:59 → SEA 14:51DL 4070 · flown by SkyWest 2h 49m Seattle SEA 17:40 → ORD 23:38DL 2108 9h 39m 97% 80%
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:45 → IAH 11:04UA 1936 2h 37m Houston IAH 13:41 → ORD 16:39UA 2458 8h 54m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → ONT 13:50 → SFO 15:15UA 1375 3h 19m San Francisco SFO 18:34 → ORD 00:59 +1UA 1375 9h 09m 99% 78%
AlaskaDetails → ONT 12:04 → SEA 14:44AS 654 3h 04m Seattle SEA 17:48 → ORD 23:59AS 538 9h 55m 100% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → ONT 12:39 → DFW 17:48AA 2956 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:38 → ORD 21:22AA 1424 6h 43m 67% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON