Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2363 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–26%.

Safest bet that day UA 2363 ONT 06:00 → SFO 07:25 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest F9 1159 ONT 08:58 → SFO 10:30 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 23% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2363 United Flight history →	ONT 06:00	SFO 07:25	6%	2%	0.7%	91%
UA 1387 United	ONT 09:21	SFO 10:48	13%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 1375 United Flight history →	ONT 13:50	SFO 15:15	19%	10%	0.7%	57%
UA 5624 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ONT 18:39	SFO 20:07	22%	13%	0.8%	16%
F9 1159 Frontier Flight history →	ONT 08:58	SFO 10:30	26%	9%	1.3%	23%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON