Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1182 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 1182 ONT 06:01 → SJC 07:25 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3164 ONT 18:35 → SJC 19:45 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1182 Southwest	ONT 06:01	SJC 07:25	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 383 Southwest Flight history →	ONT 06:30	SJC 07:50	2%	1%	0.6%	100%
WN 3162 Southwest Flight history →	ONT 10:50	SJC 12:00	7%	2%	0.6%	82%
WN 3845 Southwest Flight history →	ONT 16:00	SJC 17:10	16%	5%	0.5%	70%
WN 3164 Southwest Flight history →	ONT 18:35	SJC 19:45	18%	6%	0.6%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON