Today: UA 3640 at 20:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–28%.

Safest bet today UA 3640 ORD 20:00 → ABQ 22:34 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest AA 1182 ORD 21:27 → ABQ 23:26 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


UA 3640 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 20:00	ABQ 22:34	11%	4%	0.7%	76%
AA 1219 American Flight history →	ORD 11:07	ABQ 13:30	21%	6%	0.2%	76%
AA 1341 American Flight history →	ORD 11:31	ABQ 13:33	24%	7%	0.2%	60%
UA 2144 United	ORD 20:33	ABQ 22:37	26%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 1182 American	ORD 21:27	ABQ 23:26	28%	8%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON