Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 17–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 461 ORD 16:38 → ANC 19:42 · 17% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1354 ORD 17:00 → ANC 20:52 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 461 United	ORD 16:38	ANC 19:42	17%	4%	0.2%	no record
UA 841 United Flight history →	ORD 16:10	ANC 19:54	20%	5%	0.3%	62%
AA 1354 American Flight history →	ORD 17:00	ANC 20:52	24%	6%	0.4%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON