Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 13–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 5279 ORD 08:52 → ASE 11:01 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time Riskiest AA 6427 ORD 11:10 → ASE 13:16 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5279 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 08:52	ASE 11:01	13%	5%	0.7%	64%
OO 4914 SkyWest	ORD 10:01	ASE 11:51	16%	7%	0.7%	no record
UA 5254 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 19:47	ASE 22:00	16%	6%	0.8%	62%
AA 6186 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 19:49	ASE 21:56	17%	6%	0.8%	63%
AA 6427 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 11:10	ASE 13:16	18%	8%	0.7%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON