Today: UA 1336 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–28%.

Safest bet today UA 1336 ORD 07:00 → AUS 09:56 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 1568 ORD 14:46 → AUS 17:30 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1336 United Flight history →	ORD 07:00	AUS 09:56	9%	3%	0.4%	91%
UA 1688 United Flight history →	ORD 09:01	AUS 11:59	13%	4%	0.4%	83%
AA 1121 American	ORD 08:15	AUS 11:16	15%	5%	0.5%	no record
AA 2218 American Flight history →	ORD 08:30	AUS 11:13	15%	5%	0.5%	86%
UA 312 United Flight history →	ORD 19:58	AUS 22:54	16%	6%	0.7%	68%
UA 1061 United Flight history →	ORD 11:47	AUS 14:41	17%	6%	0.4%	81%
UA 622 United Flight history →	ORD 13:30	AUS 16:22	22%	8%	0.4%	80%
AA 438 American	ORD 19:41	AUS 22:48	22%	8%	0.8%	no record
AA 1180 American	ORD 13:35	AUS 16:33	26%	9%	0.5%	no record
UA 1211 United	ORD 13:44	AUS 16:37	26%	9%	0.4%	no record
AA 935 American Flight history →	ORD 21:16	AUS 23:59	27%	9%	0.8%	45%
AA 1715 American Flight history →	ORD 19:16	AUS 22:00	28%	8%	0.8%	61%
AA 1568 American Flight history →	ORD 14:46	AUS 17:30	30%	9%	0.5%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON