Today: MQ 4012 at 18:48 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–25%.

Safest bet today MQ 4012 ORD 18:48 → AVL 21:33 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5637 ORD 18:00 → AVL 20:50 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


MQ 4012 Envoy	ORD 18:48	AVL 21:33	14%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 3406 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 15:38	AVL 18:34	16%	4%	0.5%	67%
AA 3792 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 13:57	AVL 16:10	16%	3%	0.6%	79%
G7 4522 GoJet	ORD 14:02	AVL 16:49	17%	5%	0.5%	no record
UA 5573 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 13:55	AVL 16:58	22%	10%	0.4%	81%
UA 5663 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 17:45	AVL 20:48	24%	12%	0.3%	57%
OO 5637 SkyWest	ORD 18:00	AVL 20:50	25%	11%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON