Today: UA 516 at 18:10 is the safest bet, 25% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26–35%.

Safest bet today UA 516 ORD 18:10 → BDL 21:33 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time Riskiest UA 1617 ORD 16:06 → BDL 18:42 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 7 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 516 United Flight history →	ORD 18:10	BDL 21:33	25%	6%	0.1%	51%
UA 1616 United	ORD 18:13	BDL 21:23	26%	6%	0.1%	no record
AA 1453 American Flight history →	ORD 19:04	BDL 22:26	26%	9%	0.3%	63%
AA 2165 American Flight history →	ORD 20:05	BDL 23:37	28%	9%	0.2%	74%
UA 1617 United	ORD 16:06	BDL 18:42	35%	6%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON