tailodds FORECAST
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Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:25 am at Chicago)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Today: AA 3757 at 21:30 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–26%.

Safest bet today AA 3757 ORD 21:30 → BHM 23:29 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time Riskiest OO 6260 ORD 22:07 → BHM 00:01 · 26% chance 15+ min late
Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.
AA 3757 American flown by Envoy Flight history → ORD 21:30 BHM 23:29 10% 3% 0.7% 70%
AA 3971 American flown by Envoy Flight history → ORD 13:01 BHM 15:01 14% 3% 0.2% 86%
OO 6256 SkyWest ORD 10:37 BHM 12:42 20% 8% 0.2% no record
OO 5721 SkyWest ORD 11:12 BHM 13:08 21% 7% 0.2% no record
OO 5416 SkyWest ORD 21:37 BHM 23:31 24% 6% 0.7% no record
OO 6260 SkyWest ORD 22:07 BHM 00:01 26% 8% 0.7% no record
UA 4447 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record ORD 21:30 BHM 23:34 21% 9% 5.6% 79%
UA 4380 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record ORD 10:35 BHM 12:46 24% 0% 0.0% 76%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON