Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:40 pm at Chicago); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 30% (calm day: 16%). Best bet: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 17:54, 73% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Billings on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Billings is 1 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORD 17:54 → MSP 19:31DL 1306	2h 49m Minneapolis	MSP 22:20 → BIL 23:30DL 2941	6h 36m	93%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	ORD 18:17 → DEN 20:22UA 1974	48m Denver	DEN 21:10 → BIL 22:54UA 5257 · flown by SkyWest	5h 37m	71%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON