Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 3973 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–18%.

Safest bet that day AA 3973 ORD 06:40 → BNA 08:23 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 6326 ORD 19:40 → BNA 21:25 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3973 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 06:40	BNA 08:23	5%	2%	0.6%	88%
YX 3498 Republic	ORD 12:50	BNA 14:40	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 2175 United Flight history →	ORD 07:10	BNA 08:51	6%	2%	0.5%	79%
UA 2073 United	ORD 06:49	BNA 08:19	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 3439 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:30	BNA 10:13	7%	2%	0.6%	86%
UA 1674 United	ORD 08:56	BNA 10:41	7%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 5304 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 08:40	BNA 10:34	9%	5%	0.6%	94%
UA 2414 United Flight history →	ORD 10:37	BNA 12:29	10%	3%	0.5%	82%
OO 4991 SkyWest	ORD 08:44	BNA 10:18	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 3383 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 17:11	BNA 18:54	12%	4%	0.6%	63%
AA 2362 American	ORD 11:07	BNA 12:47	13%	5%	1.0%	no record
AA 2500 American	ORD 13:27	BNA 15:08	15%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 1650 American Flight history →	ORD 10:30	BNA 12:07	15%	4%	0.9%	78%
UA 2784 United Flight history →	ORD 17:58	BNA 19:44	16%	7%	0.5%	63%
UA 2142 United Flight history →	ORD 13:51	BNA 15:21	16%	6%	0.6%	69%
AA 6200 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 13:45	BNA 15:29	18%	8%	0.6%	59%
AA 6326 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 19:40	BNA 21:25	18%	8%	0.6%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON