Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 35 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 2828 at 06:59 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–24%.

Safest bet that day DL 2828 ORD 06:59 → BOS 10:30 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 2456 ORD 13:57 → BOS 17:17 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2828 Delta Flight history →	ORD 06:59	BOS 10:30	4%	2%	0.6%	87%
UA 1186 United Flight history →	ORD 06:05	BOS 09:29	5%	2%	0.6%	92%
UA 1076 United Flight history →	ORD 07:33	BOS 11:05	6%	3%	0.6%	94%
UA 659 United	ORD 07:26	BOS 10:43	6%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 4106 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:30	BOS 12:07	6%	3%	0.6%	91%
UA 1117 United Flight history →	ORD 09:15	BOS 12:57	7%	3%	0.6%	87%
AA 3022 American Flight history →	ORD 06:00	BOS 09:34	8%	2%	0.8%	97%
DL 2570 Delta Flight history →	ORD 10:28	BOS 13:59	8%	3%	0.6%	76%
AA 2950 American	ORD 05:57	BOS 09:18	8%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 2968 American Flight history →	ORD 06:54	BOS 10:28	8%	3%	0.8%	85%
UA 1367 United	ORD 09:01	BOS 12:18	9%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 2511 American	ORD 06:57	BOS 10:18	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 1606 United Flight history →	ORD 10:30	BOS 14:07	11%	6%	0.6%	82%
AA 802 American	ORD 08:34	BOS 12:17	11%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 4384 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 16:02	BOS 19:53	13%	9%	0.7%	62%
DL 2816 Delta Flight history →	ORD 15:19	BOS 18:59	15%	9%	0.6%	62%
UA 1779 United Flight history →	ORD 21:41	BOS 01:14	15%	7%	0.6%	68%
DL 2646 Delta Flight history →	ORD 19:25	BOS 23:00	15%	7%	0.6%	65%
AA 2532 American	ORD 11:05	BOS 14:52	15%	6%	0.9%	no record
B6 112 JetBlue	ORD 09:38	BOS 13:01	16%	8%	0.7%	no record
AA 1563 American Flight history →	ORD 10:35	BOS 14:13	16%	6%	0.7%	58%
UA 1032 United Flight history →	ORD 19:45	BOS 23:21	19%	9%	0.6%	60%
AA 2682 American Flight history →	ORD 20:29	BOS 00:05	19%	7%	0.8%	62%
B6 312 JetBlue Flight history →	ORD 10:56	BOS 14:23	19%	10%	0.7%	74%
UA 2331 United Flight history →	ORD 18:20	BOS 21:56	20%	9%	0.6%	59%
UA 2401 United	ORD 13:01	BOS 16:33	20%	9%	0.6%	no record
UA 794 United Flight history →	ORD 12:53	BOS 16:29	21%	8%	0.6%	67%
UA 1928 United	ORD 14:10	BOS 17:49	22%	10%	0.6%	no record
UA 1693 United Flight history →	ORD 13:55	BOS 17:31	22%	10%	0.6%	64%
AA 1479 American Flight history →	ORD 12:13	BOS 16:00	22%	7%	0.7%	50%
B6 1012 JetBlue Flight history →	ORD 20:10	BOS 23:41	23%	14%	0.7%	71%
AA 3107 American Flight history →	ORD 19:29	BOS 23:06	24%	9%	0.8%	56%
AA 2303 American Flight history →	ORD 15:08	BOS 18:47	25%	12%	0.7%	49%
AA 1554 American Flight history →	ORD 13:57	BOS 17:36	27%	10%	0.7%	57%
AA 2456 American	ORD 13:57	BOS 17:17	30%	11%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON