Today: YX 4780 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–27%.

Safest bet today YX 4780 ORD 08:00 → BUF 10:47 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 5763 ORD 18:17 → BUF 21:08 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


YX 4780 Republic	ORD 08:00	BUF 10:47	8%	2%	0.1%	no record
UA 2753 United Flight history →	ORD 07:15	BUF 10:00	8%	4%	0.2%	86%
UA 265 United	ORD 07:14	BUF 09:20	10%	4%	0.2%	no record
UA 2226 United Flight history →	ORD 13:55	BUF 16:41	16%	5%	0.2%	82%
UA 580 United	ORD 13:53	BUF 16:28	16%	6%	0.2%	no record
OO 5275 SkyWest	ORD 10:25	BUF 13:02	17%	6%	0.2%	no record
AA 4913 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 13:25	BUF 16:14	19%	9%	0.4%	64%
AA 2921 American	ORD 14:27	BUF 17:21	20%	8%	0.3%	no record
UA 1335 United Flight history →	ORD 17:55	BUF 20:31	25%	7%	0.2%	66%
AA 403 American Flight history →	ORD 21:19	BUF 23:59	25%	14%	0.9%	41%
AA 564 American Flight history →	ORD 21:28	BUF 00:05	25%	13%	0.9%	57%
UA 5763 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 18:17	BUF 21:08	27%	10%	0.4%	62%
UA 4382 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 10:25	BUF 13:13	27%	12%	2.1%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON