Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 3446 at 06:54 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 3446 ORD 06:54 → BWI 10:01 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 3222 ORD 21:10 → BWI 00:01 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3446 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 06:54	BWI 10:01	8%	2%	0.5%	92%
UA 1269 United Flight history →	ORD 07:48	BWI 10:44	9%	3%	0.4%	94%
MQ 3523 Envoy	ORD 08:17	BWI 11:20	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2653 United Flight history →	ORD 10:51	BWI 13:57	12%	4%	0.7%	83%
AA 3762 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 14:44	BWI 17:41	13%	3%	0.7%	93%
UA 675 United Flight history →	ORD 21:20	BWI 00:28	15%	6%	0.7%	60%
F9 4064 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 06:18	BWI 09:27	16%	5%	0.8%	65%
UA 2737 United	ORD 15:21	BWI 18:27	16%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 220 United	ORD 20:07	BWI 23:13	16%	7%	0.7%	no record
UA 2124 United Flight history →	ORD 14:30	BWI 17:36	18%	6%	0.7%	69%
UA 1557 United	ORD 17:48	BWI 20:45	23%	8%	0.7%	no record
UA 440 United Flight history →	ORD 18:20	BWI 21:26	25%	8%	0.7%	51%
AA 3222 American	ORD 21:10	BWI 00:01	25%	6%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON