Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 6–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 224 ORD 09:10 → BZN 11:44 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 1639 ORD 13:49 → BZN 16:13 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 224 United Flight history →	ORD 09:10	BZN 11:44	6%	2%	0.6%	83%
UA 623 United Flight history →	ORD 12:45	BZN 15:13	9%	3%	0.6%	82%
AA 1501 American Flight history →	ORD 09:56	BZN 12:08	11%	3%	0.8%	78%
UA 533 United Flight history →	ORD 20:15	BZN 22:43	14%	6%	0.6%	58%
AA 1639 American Flight history →	ORD 13:49	BZN 16:13	15%	4%	0.8%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON