Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 3646 at 10:35 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 3646 ORD 10:35 → CHS 14:06 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 3127 ORD 19:45 → CHS 23:09 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3646 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 10:35	CHS 14:06	6%	2%	0.9%	92%
UA 2112 United	ORD 06:56	CHS 10:09	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2631 United	ORD 10:55	CHS 14:17	12%	3%	1.2%	no record
AA 2947 American	ORD 11:51	CHS 15:16	15%	5%	1.2%	no record
UA 4664 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 14:52	CHS 18:23	19%	6%	0.9%	76%
UA 2362 United Flight history →	ORD 18:25	CHS 21:48	22%	5%	1.2%	63%
AA 3127 American Flight history →	ORD 19:45	CHS 23:09	25%	8%	1.0%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON