Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 22 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 3422 at 09:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 3422 ORD 09:05 → CLE 11:41 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 1934 ORD 19:24 → CLE 21:55 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3422 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 09:05	CLE 11:41	5%	2%	0.6%	95%
UA 1488 United Flight history →	ORD 07:25	CLE 09:54	7%	2%	0.4%	90%
MQ 3429 Envoy	ORD 09:47	CLE 12:13	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 3454 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 14:51	CLE 17:23	10%	2%	0.7%	40%
UA 2389 United Flight history →	ORD 10:29	CLE 12:58	10%	3%	0.6%	83%
AA 6363 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 06:38	CLE 09:11	11%	3%	0.5%	78%
YX 4784 Republic	ORD 17:35	CLE 20:06	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1878 United Flight history →	ORD 13:09	CLE 15:36	11%	3%	0.5%	70%
AA 4949 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 11:27	CLE 13:59	11%	5%	0.6%	86%
OO 5480 SkyWest	ORD 09:06	CLE 11:34	12%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 3466 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 17:43	CLE 20:16	12%	3%	0.7%	72%
UA 1502 United Flight history →	ORD 14:20	CLE 16:54	13%	3%	0.6%	79%
OO 6450 SkyWest	ORD 07:17	CLE 09:43	14%	3%	0.5%	no record
MQ 3375 Envoy	ORD 19:22	CLE 21:48	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 457 United Flight history →	ORD 21:20	CLE 23:49	15%	5%	0.6%	57%
UA 2652 United Flight history →	ORD 17:45	CLE 20:13	16%	6%	0.5%	58%
AA 4909 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 14:53	CLE 17:27	16%	6%	0.6%	70%
UA 3756 United	ORD 17:18	CLE 19:43	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1641 United Flight history →	ORD 19:59	CLE 22:29	17%	5%	0.5%	64%
OO 5477 SkyWest	ORD 16:25	CLE 18:53	17%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1156 United	ORD 20:28	CLE 22:50	18%	5%	0.5%	no record
AA 1934 American Flight history →	ORD 19:24	CLE 21:55	25%	7%	1.2%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON