Today: UA 3450 at 10:26 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–30%.

Safest bet today UA 3450 ORD 10:26 → CLT 13:50 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest UA 1748 ORD 18:15 → CLT 21:29 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 3450 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 10:26	CLT 13:50	5%	2%	0.2%	89%
YX 3518 Republic	ORD 14:16	CLT 17:39	7%	2%	0.2%	no record
AA 2530 American Flight history →	ORD 09:00	CLT 12:12	9%	4%	0.2%	78%
AA 2080 American Flight history →	ORD 08:58	CLT 11:51	10%	4%	0.2%	84%
AA 411 American	ORD 08:01	CLT 10:52	10%	4%	0.2%	no record
AA 3280 American Flight history →	ORD 13:17	CLT 16:29	11%	4%	0.3%	87%
AA 2681 American Flight history →	ORD 12:00	CLT 15:08	13%	4%	0.3%	76%
AA 1409 American Flight history →	ORD 13:22	CLT 16:26	13%	4%	0.3%	63%
AA 662 American	ORD 12:12	CLT 15:13	14%	4%	0.3%	no record
AA 2976 American Flight history →	ORD 20:54	CLT 23:59	16%	5%	0.9%	62%
AA 2917 American Flight history →	ORD 17:45	CLT 20:59	16%	6%	0.2%	59%
AA 1683 American Flight history →	ORD 16:45	CLT 19:59	17%	6%	0.2%	75%
UA 5757 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 14:30	CLT 17:59	17%	9%	0.3%	85%
AA 3188 American	ORD 16:49	CLT 19:40	21%	6%	0.2%	no record
AA 689 American Flight history →	ORD 18:47	CLT 21:59	23%	5%	0.9%	68%
UA 1748 United Flight history →	ORD 18:15	CLT 21:29	30%	7%	0.2%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON