Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 14–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today OO 5209 ORD 08:23 → COS 10:26 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 6191 ORD 11:13 → COS 13:17 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 5209 SkyWest	ORD 08:23	COS 10:26	14%	6%	0.2%	no record
UA 1082 United Flight history →	ORD 09:06	COS 11:09	14%	4%	0.2%	86%
UA 4638 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 19:45	COS 21:55	20%	9%	0.7%	66%
OO 6191 SkyWest	ORD 11:13	COS 13:17	21%	7%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON