Today: AA 3480 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–24%.

Safest bet today AA 3480 ORD 08:30 → COU 10:02 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 5336 ORD 22:00 → COU 23:33 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 3480 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:30	COU 10:02	10%	2%	0.3%	93%
MQ 3394 Envoy	ORD 08:46	COU 10:14	11%	2%	0.3%	no record
AA 3745 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 19:29	COU 21:01	12%	3%	0.7%	68%
AA 3479 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 16:29	COU 18:01	14%	3%	0.5%	82%
MQ 3398 Envoy	ORD 16:18	COU 17:40	16%	3%	0.5%	no record
OO 5614 SkyWest	ORD 09:31	COU 11:01	17%	5%	0.2%	no record
AA 3696 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 19:18	COU 20:40	19%	3%	0.5%	59%
UA 5336 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 22:00	COU 23:33	24%	5%	0.8%	79%
UA 4392 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 08:40	COU 10:13	22%	5%	0.0%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON