Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 23 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 4412 at 10:30 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 6–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 4412 ORD 10:30 → CVG 13:01 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 1732 ORD 17:47 → CVG 20:03 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4412 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 10:30	CVG 13:01	6%	2%	0.6%	90%
AA 3489 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 07:06	CVG 09:35	6%	2%	0.6%	94%
AA 4776 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 22:00	CVG 00:30	6%	2%	0.6%	74%
UA 1970 United	ORD 06:50	CVG 09:06	7%	2%	0.4%	no record
AA 4720 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 11:54	CVG 14:25	7%	3%	0.6%	76%
MQ 4097 Envoy	ORD 07:00	CVG 09:15	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
YX 3593 Republic	ORD 16:30	CVG 18:54	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 3950 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 10:32	CVG 12:54	9%	2%	0.6%	80%
AA 3366 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 21:02	CVG 23:28	11%	2%	0.6%	88%
MQ 4099 Envoy	ORD 17:07	CVG 19:36	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 3690 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 19:29	CVG 22:00	13%	3%	0.6%	74%
AA 3674 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 18:46	CVG 21:20	13%	3%	0.6%	76%
UA 4648 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 10:35	CVG 13:04	15%	5%	0.7%	94%
UA 2370 United Flight history →	ORD 14:20	CVG 16:49	16%	5%	0.6%	72%
OO 5215 SkyWest	ORD 09:03	CVG 11:32	17%	5%	0.4%	no record
OO 5266 SkyWest	ORD 10:42	CVG 13:01	18%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 2148 United Flight history →	ORD 21:20	CVG 23:52	18%	5%	0.6%	52%
OO 5521 SkyWest	ORD 13:16	CVG 15:47	19%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 6230 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 16:06	CVG 18:37	20%	6%	0.7%	65%
OO 704 SkyWest	ORD 14:29	CVG 16:49	24%	8%	0.6%	no record
UA 1732 United Flight history →	ORD 17:47	CVG 20:03	24%	6%	0.6%	65%
UA 4388 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 12:59	CVG 15:30	17%	14%	2.7%	83%
UA 4445 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 16:29	CVG 19:00	29%	11%	9.7%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON