Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 3786 at 09:35 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 3786 ORD 09:35 → DAY 11:59 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest UA 5810 ORD 15:00 → DAY 17:30 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 3786 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 09:35	DAY 11:59	8%	2%	0.7%	100%
MQ 4226 Envoy	ORD 09:57	DAY 12:23	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
YX 4682 Republic	ORD 15:29	DAY 17:49	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 5626 SkyWest	ORD 08:42	DAY 10:58	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 5811 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 11:29	DAY 13:47	22%	6%	0.6%	67%
AA 4972 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 20:30	DAY 22:52	22%	9%	0.7%	48%
AA 5008 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 13:10	DAY 15:35	23%	6%	0.6%	79%
UA 5810 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 15:00	DAY 17:30	25%	6%	0.7%	84%
UA 4594 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 08:40	DAY 11:04	28%	14%	1.5%	72%
UA 4589 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 21:20	DAY 23:49	31%	14%	7.2%	69%
UA 4484 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 17:51	DAY 20:22	41%	23%	4.4%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON