Today: UA 382 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–26%.

Safest bet today UA 382 ORD 08:00 → DCA 11:01 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 1787 ORD 17:55 → DCA 20:59 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 382 United Flight history →	ORD 08:00	DCA 11:01	11%	3%	0.2%	85%
UA 1705 United Flight history →	ORD 08:15	DCA 11:16	11%	3%	0.2%	90%
AA 2345 American Flight history →	ORD 08:00	DCA 10:59	11%	4%	0.2%	77%
AA 4809 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 10:45	DCA 13:59	11%	3%	0.1%	80%
UA 1904 United	ORD 09:55	DCA 12:54	12%	4%	0.2%	no record
AA 2700 American	ORD 08:51	DCA 12:00	12%	5%	0.2%	no record
UA 2218 United Flight history →	ORD 09:00	DCA 11:58	12%	4%	0.2%	72%
UA 202 United	ORD 09:22	DCA 12:23	12%	4%	0.2%	no record
UA 1381 United Flight history →	ORD 10:00	DCA 13:04	13%	4%	0.2%	86%
AA 315 American	ORD 09:25	DCA 12:28	14%	6%	0.2%	no record
AA 523 American Flight history →	ORD 10:15	DCA 13:28	14%	6%	0.2%	79%
AA 2398 American Flight history →	ORD 09:42	DCA 12:44	15%	6%	0.2%	71%
UA 752 United Flight history →	ORD 12:45	DCA 15:52	16%	6%	0.2%	65%
UA 1314 United Flight history →	ORD 14:00	DCA 17:12	17%	6%	0.2%	56%
AA 789 American	ORD 13:23	DCA 16:42	17%	7%	0.2%	no record
AA 514 American	ORD 21:03	DCA 00:14	18%	8%	2.1%	no record
AA 2769 American Flight history →	ORD 16:57	DCA 20:13	18%	8%	0.2%	74%
UA 1941 United Flight history →	ORD 15:00	DCA 18:11	18%	6%	0.2%	66%
UA 2668 United Flight history →	ORD 11:15	DCA 14:22	19%	5%	0.2%	69%
AA 2680 American	ORD 14:57	DCA 18:17	19%	8%	0.2%	no record
UA 2761 United	ORD 17:17	DCA 20:22	20%	7%	0.1%	no record
UA 2160 United Flight history →	ORD 19:45	DCA 22:54	22%	8%	0.6%	56%
AA 1187 American Flight history →	ORD 19:02	DCA 22:14	23%	9%	0.2%	58%
AA 1675 American Flight history →	ORD 13:20	DCA 16:25	23%	7%	0.2%	59%
UA 2812 United	ORD 16:18	DCA 19:24	23%	7%	0.2%	no record
AA 489 American Flight history →	ORD 17:46	DCA 20:48	24%	8%	0.2%	70%
UA 1369 United Flight history →	ORD 18:00	DCA 21:10	26%	9%	0.2%	50%
AA 1787 American Flight history →	ORD 17:55	DCA 20:59	26%	9%	0.2%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON