Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 37 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 760 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 760 ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 936 ORD 18:00 → DFW 20:29 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 760 American Flight history →	ORD 05:00	DFW 07:30	7%	4%	0.6%	89%
AA 2279 American	ORD 05:33	DFW 08:04	8%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 2896 American Flight history →	ORD 06:04	DFW 08:36	9%	4%	0.6%	86%
UA 528 United Flight history →	ORD 08:45	DFW 11:29	9%	4%	0.7%	79%
UA 539 United Flight history →	ORD 07:15	DFW 09:58	10%	4%	0.3%	82%
AA 1902 American Flight history →	ORD 07:00	DFW 09:35	10%	5%	0.6%	77%
AA 1022 American	ORD 06:58	DFW 09:28	11%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 3544 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 19:24	DFW 22:06	14%	4%	0.7%	73%
AA 312 American	ORD 09:46	DFW 12:30	14%	6%	1.8%	no record
AA 1555 American Flight history →	ORD 08:30	DFW 11:04	14%	5%	1.8%	71%
UA 441 United Flight history →	ORD 10:29	DFW 13:12	15%	5%	0.7%	77%
AA 3052 American Flight history →	ORD 09:40	DFW 12:13	15%	6%	1.6%	82%
AA 967 American	ORD 08:17	DFW 10:46	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 685 United Flight history →	ORD 12:20	DFW 15:03	16%	6%	0.7%	74%
AA 618 American	ORD 12:15	DFW 14:57	16%	6%	1.8%	no record
F9 1341 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 06:03	DFW 08:41	17%	10%	1.2%	60%
UA 2290 United Flight history →	ORD 13:05	DFW 15:48	18%	6%	0.7%	76%
AA 3264 American Flight history →	ORD 12:05	DFW 14:39	19%	6%	1.3%	68%
MQ 3794 Envoy	ORD 19:12	DFW 21:38	19%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 793 United Flight history →	ORD 15:40	DFW 18:22	19%	8%	0.7%	68%
AA 2222 American Flight history →	ORD 11:00	DFW 13:33	19%	6%	1.3%	71%
AA 1264 American	ORD 11:06	DFW 13:51	20%	5%	1.3%	no record
UA 1673 United Flight history →	ORD 19:50	DFW 22:36	20%	8%	0.7%	65%
AA 391 American	ORD 13:52	DFW 16:35	20%	7%	1.3%	no record
AA 2600 American Flight history →	ORD 20:59	DFW 23:32	22%	9%	1.3%	52%
UA 309 United	ORD 14:33	DFW 17:06	22%	7%	0.7%	no record
AA 1120 American Flight history →	ORD 13:25	DFW 15:59	23%	8%	1.3%	49%
AA 1708 American	ORD 13:06	DFW 15:43	23%	7%	1.8%	no record
AA 2429 American Flight history →	ORD 14:58	DFW 17:42	25%	8%	1.3%	73%
AA 2988 American Flight history →	ORD 16:51	DFW 19:28	26%	10%	1.2%	46%
AA 2754 American Flight history →	ORD 15:49	DFW 18:25	26%	8%	1.3%	63%
F9 3241 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 13:14	DFW 15:51	28%	12%	0.8%	72%
AA 2257 American Flight history →	ORD 14:59	DFW 17:35	30%	8%	1.3%	65%
AA 1559 American Flight history →	ORD 18:19	DFW 20:56	30%	9%	1.3%	41%
AA 1161 American	ORD 15:48	DFW 18:16	30%	9%	1.8%	no record
AA 2499 American Flight history →	ORD 17:29	DFW 19:57	33%	10%	1.3%	56%
AA 936 American	ORD 18:00	DFW 20:29	35%	10%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON