Today: UA 3475 at 21:20 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–31%.

Safest bet today UA 3475 ORD 21:20 → DTW 23:54 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest OO 4983 ORD 19:01 → DTW 21:23 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 7 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 3475 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 21:20	DTW 23:54	9%	3%	0.6%	76%
AA 3498 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 10:30	DTW 13:04	11%	3%	0.2%	86%
AA 3980 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 15:06	DTW 17:41	11%	3%	0.2%	86%
AA 3977 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 10:47	DTW 13:13	12%	3%	0.2%	91%
DL 1716 Delta Flight history →	ORD 14:07	DTW 16:40	15%	4%	0.1%	78%
DL 3673 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 11:30	DTW 14:01	16%	8%	0.2%	83%
UA 5756 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 10:50	DTW 13:27	17%	8%	0.2%	77%
MQ 4105 Envoy	ORD 17:28	DTW 19:46	17%	5%	0.2%	no record
OO 3819 SkyWest	ORD 11:15	DTW 13:37	17%	8%	0.2%	no record
AA 3500 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 18:11	DTW 20:46	17%	5%	0.3%	61%
UA 5867 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 15:00	DTW 17:39	18%	7%	0.2%	82%
UA 2632 United	ORD 15:29	DTW 17:49	19%	6%	0.1%	no record
OO 5882 SkyWest	ORD 13:12	DTW 15:45	20%	8%	0.2%	no record
DL 1084 Delta Flight history →	ORD 19:17	DTW 21:52	21%	5%	0.2%	69%
DL 2358 Delta Flight history →	ORD 17:18	DTW 19:50	21%	5%	0.2%	71%
UA 768 United	ORD 20:07	DTW 22:25	22%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 642 United	ORD 18:05	DTW 20:25	23%	8%	0.1%	no record
UA 5954 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 16:00	DTW 18:38	23%	9%	0.2%	67%
UA 2426 United Flight history →	ORD 19:47	DTW 22:19	23%	6%	0.6%	63%
UA 349 United	ORD 21:27	DTW 23:47	23%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 4931 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 18:53	DTW 21:30	26%	9%	0.2%	57%
OO 4983 SkyWest	ORD 19:01	DTW 21:23	31%	8%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON