Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:08 pm at Chicago); 4 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 13:44, is the safest bet: 65% chance of reaching Panama City Beach on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Panama City Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORD 13:44 → ATL 16:54DL 2894	3h 41m Atlanta	ATL 20:35 → ECP 20:46DL 2494	7h 02m	98%	65%
Delta Details →	ORD 18:22 → ATL 21:39DL 2740	1h 48m Atlanta	ATL 23:27 → ECP 23:37DL 3131	5h 15m	87%	59%
American Details →	ORD 16:45 → CLT 19:59AA 1683	3h 10m Charlotte	CLT 23:09 → ECP 23:55AA 5633 · flown by PSA	7h 10m	95%	57%
American Details →	ORD 13:17 → CLT 16:29AA 3280	1h 08m Charlotte	CLT 17:37 → ECP 18:22AA 5649 · flown by PSA	5h 05m	88%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON