Today: UA 759 at 20:07 is the safest bet, 23% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24–48%.

Safest bet today UA 759 ORD 20:07 → EWR 23:39 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time Riskiest UA 1630 ORD 17:40 → EWR 20:10 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Against a calm day 34% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 39% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 18 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 759 United Flight history →	ORD 20:07	EWR 23:39	23%	8%	0.2%	65%
UA 1209 United Flight history →	ORD 21:30	EWR 00:53	24%	7%	0.3%	68%
UA 534 United Flight history →	ORD 18:28	EWR 21:58	28%	11%	0.2%	58%
AA 2549 American Flight history →	ORD 20:09	EWR 23:30	33%	14%	0.4%	45%
AA 3253 American Flight history →	ORD 17:36	EWR 21:00	39%	22%	0.5%	47%
UA 2790 United	ORD 17:54	EWR 20:59	40%	11%	0.3%	no record
UA 1630 United Flight history →	ORD 17:40	EWR 20:10	48%	14%	0.3%	70%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON