Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 12–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 5612 ORD 09:27 → GEG 11:48 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 814 ORD 11:30 → GEG 13:39 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5612 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 09:27	GEG 11:48	12%	5%	0.6%	89%
OO 4672 SkyWest	ORD 09:46	GEG 11:59	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 677 American Flight history →	ORD 09:55	GEG 11:54	18%	5%	0.8%	59%
AA 814 American Flight history →	ORD 11:30	GEG 13:39	19%	6%	0.8%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON