Today: YX 4416 at 22:40 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–35%.

Safest bet today YX 4416 ORD 22:40 → GRR 00:50 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1096 ORD 22:32 → GRR 00:36 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 40% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 10 flights that already left today are not shown.


YX 4416 Republic	ORD 22:40	GRR 00:50	13%	3%	0.2%	no record
OO 5656 SkyWest	ORD 17:54	GRR 19:56	20%	8%	0.5%	no record
UA 5303 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 21:40	GRR 23:57	21%	9%	0.4%	67%
OO 6322 SkyWest	ORD 17:55	GRR 19:57	21%	8%	0.5%	no record
UA 5250 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 16:03	GRR 18:05	22%	7%	0.7%	58%
UA 1178 United Flight history →	ORD 18:02	GRR 20:12	25%	7%	0.1%	41%
UA 2472 United	ORD 20:08	GRR 22:10	25%	8%	0.1%	no record
UA 1819 United Flight history →	ORD 21:47	GRR 23:48	26%	7%	0.1%	68%
AA 1096 American Flight history →	ORD 22:32	GRR 00:36	35%	10%	0.3%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON