Today looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 10–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 3932 ORD 15:08 → GSO 18:12 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest G7 4565 ORD 14:43 → GSO 17:07 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 3932 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 15:08	GSO 18:12	10%	3%	0.3%	86%
AA 3648 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 18:40	GSO 21:47	11%	3%	0.4%	78%
AA 4118 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 15:51	GSO 18:44	11%	3%	0.4%	92%
G7 4502 GoJet	ORD 18:40	GSO 21:32	17%	4%	0.4%	no record
G7 4565 GoJet	ORD 14:43	GSO 17:07	20%	4%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON