Today: UA 5330 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–30%.

Safest bet today UA 5330 ORD 06:55 → GSP 09:55 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest UA 636 ORD 18:44 → GSP 21:30 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5330 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 06:55	GSP 09:55	10%	7%	0.4%	76%
AA 3556 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:00	GSP 11:01	13%	3%	0.6%	94%
AA 4160 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:26	GSP 11:24	14%	3%	0.6%	100%worse than usual
AA 3607 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 20:35	GSP 23:25	15%	4%	0.7%	70%
MQ 3522 Envoy	ORD 15:07	GSP 17:58	16%	3%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3881 Envoy	ORD 19:55	GSP 22:46	16%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 5403 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 13:55	GSP 17:00	18%	6%	0.6%	77%
UA 636 United	ORD 18:44	GSP 21:30	30%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON