tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Houston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264 2h 36m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → HOU 12:10DL 1195 6h 40m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → ORD 09:45 → ATL 12:51DL 1178 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381 6h 37m 100% 83%
AmericanDetails → ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760 3h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:51 → HOU 12:16AA 6413 · flown by SkyWest 7h 16m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → ORD 13:44 → ATL 16:54DL 2894 3h 51m Atlanta ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051 8h 07m 99% 76%
AmericanDetails → ORD 12:05 → DFW 14:39AA 3264 3h 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:34 → HOU 19:53AA 3351 · flown by Envoy 7h 48m 99% 76%
AmericanDetails → ORD 09:40 → DFW 12:13AA 3052 2h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:21 → HOU 15:44AA 5002 · flown by SkyWest 6h 04m 98% 71%
AmericanDetails → ORD 16:51 → DFW 19:28AA 2988 3h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:38 → HOU 23:56AA 5465 · flown by PSA 7h 05m 96% 66%
AmericanDetails → ORD 11:00 → DFW 13:33AA 2222 3h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:56 → HOU 18:19AA 6385 · flown by SkyWest 7h 19m 92% 65%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → ORD 14:59 → DFW 17:35AA 2257 59m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:34 → HOU 19:53AA 3351 · flown by Envoy 4h 54m 74% 56%
AmericanDetails → ORD 11:00 → DFW 13:33AA 2222 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:21 → HOU 15:44AA 5002 · flown by SkyWest 4h 44m 66% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON