Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 17–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 4500 ORD 19:50 → HSV 21:34 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time Riskiest AA 6426 ORD 22:32 → HSV 00:21 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 4500 United flown by GoJet Flight history →	ORD 19:50	HSV 21:34	17%	4%	0.6%	73%
MQ 3363 Envoy	ORD 20:49	HSV 22:32	17%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 6426 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 22:32	HSV 00:21	22%	12%	0.6%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON