Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 23 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2310 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 2310 ORD 05:30 → IAH 08:18 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 3144 ORD 21:07 → IAH 23:51 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2310 United Flight history →	ORD 05:30	IAH 08:18	5%	2%	0.6%	93%
UA 1799 United Flight history →	ORD 06:29	IAH 09:18	6%	2%	0.6%	92%
UA 1172 United	ORD 05:24	IAH 08:06	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2228 United	ORD 06:17	IAH 09:00	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1231 United Flight history →	ORD 07:35	IAH 10:36	8%	3%	0.6%	91%
AA 4426 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 13:29	IAH 16:25	8%	3%	0.6%	83%
UA 535 United Flight history →	ORD 08:51	IAH 11:51	9%	3%	0.6%	80%
UA 1448 United Flight history →	ORD 12:40	IAH 15:40	10%	4%	0.6%	89%
UA 2638 United Flight history →	ORD 10:25	IAH 13:23	10%	3%	0.6%	87%
UA 2665 United Flight history →	ORD 21:40	IAH 00:34	11%	5%	0.7%	76%
UA 714 United Flight history →	ORD 16:05	IAH 19:10	12%	5%	0.6%	74%
UA 2813 United Flight history →	ORD 20:02	IAH 22:59	12%	5%	0.6%	56%
UA 1954 United Flight history →	ORD 17:45	IAH 20:50	12%	5%	0.6%	77%
UA 2767 United	ORD 10:49	IAH 13:38	12%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 2451 United Flight history →	ORD 14:15	IAH 17:20	13%	4%	0.6%	78%
UA 1475 United Flight history →	ORD 18:40	IAH 21:36	14%	5%	0.6%	62%
F9 3135 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 17:46	IAH 21:03	19%	10%	0.8%	78%
AA 3322 American Flight history →	ORD 11:06	IAH 14:02	20%	6%	0.8%	86%
AA 1909 American Flight history →	ORD 08:00	IAH 10:46	22%	5%	0.9%	64%
AA 1915 American Flight history →	ORD 10:00	IAH 12:46	23%	6%	0.8%	67%
AA 2504 American Flight history →	ORD 07:18	IAH 10:04	23%	5%	0.9%	75%
AA 1913 American Flight history →	ORD 15:07	IAH 18:01	23%	8%	0.9%	52%
AA 3144 American Flight history →	ORD 21:07	IAH 23:51	25%	6%	0.9%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON