Today: AA 4740 at 09:10 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–29%.

Safest bet today AA 4740 ORD 09:10 → JAX 12:51 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest OO 5632 ORD 18:07 → JAX 21:36 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4740 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 09:10	JAX 12:51	9%	2%	0.5%	89%
MQ 4151 Envoy	ORD 08:37	JAX 12:04	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
OO 5604 SkyWest	ORD 07:31	JAX 11:12	11%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1113 United	ORD 10:32	JAX 14:04	16%	4%	0.3%	no record
UA 5807 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 14:00	JAX 17:49	19%	8%	0.7%	76%
AA 3486 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 13:53	JAX 17:22	19%	4%	0.6%	80%
AA 3317 American Flight history →	ORD 13:47	JAX 17:19	21%	8%	0.7%	66%
UA 1284 United	ORD 15:30	JAX 18:54	23%	5%	0.5%	no record
AA 2096 American Flight history →	ORD 19:29	JAX 23:05	25%	9%	2.1%	52%
UA 2443 United Flight history →	ORD 18:19	JAX 21:59	25%	6%	0.5%	66%
AA 716 American	ORD 19:27	JAX 22:51	28%	10%	2.1%	no record
OO 5632 SkyWest	ORD 18:07	JAX 21:36	29%	9%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON