Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 27 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1556 at 07:29 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–31%.

Safest bet that day DL 1556 ORD 07:29 → LAX 10:00 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest AA 2364 ORD 19:08 → LAX 21:33 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1556 Delta Flight history →	ORD 07:29	LAX 10:00	9%	3%	0.5%	80%
UA 2361 United Flight history →	ORD 07:00	LAX 09:33	10%	3%	0.6%	90%
UA 2373 United Flight history →	ORD 06:00	LAX 08:27	10%	2%	0.6%	89%
UA 2814 United Flight history →	ORD 08:48	LAX 11:26	12%	3%	0.6%	82%
AA 607 American Flight history →	ORD 06:00	LAX 08:20	12%	2%	0.9%	88%
UA 2170 United	ORD 10:47	LAX 13:16	12%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1363 United Flight history →	ORD 13:00	LAX 15:34	13%	5%	0.6%	83%
DL 967 Delta Flight history →	ORD 14:42	LAX 17:14	14%	4%	0.5%	68%
AA 1979 American Flight history →	ORD 10:38	LAX 13:14	14%	5%	0.8%	74%
AA 1628 American Flight history →	ORD 06:51	LAX 09:14	15%	3%	0.8%	70%
UA 374 United Flight history →	ORD 14:30	LAX 17:05	15%	6%	0.6%	80%
UA 576 United Flight history →	ORD 15:47	LAX 18:20	15%	5%	0.6%	76%
AA 1009 American	ORD 07:06	LAX 09:19	15%	3%	0.9%	no record
UA 2499 United Flight history →	ORD 20:18	LAX 22:55	16%	6%	0.6%	58%
UA 661 United Flight history →	ORD 21:30	LAX 00:09	16%	6%	0.6%	64%
AA 2012 American Flight history →	ORD 08:10	LAX 10:35	16%	4%	0.8%	70%
AA 2718 American Flight history →	ORD 12:00	LAX 14:21	16%	6%	0.8%	73%
AA 3008 American Flight history →	ORD 12:05	LAX 14:25	16%	6%	0.8%	79%
UA 600 United Flight history →	ORD 16:45	LAX 19:16	18%	6%	0.6%	68%
DL 2298 Delta Flight history →	ORD 18:35	LAX 21:12	20%	5%	0.5%	76%
UA 1967 United Flight history →	ORD 18:10	LAX 20:40	20%	6%	0.6%	69%
AA 529 American Flight history →	ORD 15:21	LAX 17:43	23%	8%	0.8%	59%
AA 1437 American Flight history →	ORD 17:10	LAX 19:33	23%	9%	0.8%	55%
AA 613 American Flight history →	ORD 20:49	LAX 23:13	25%	9%	0.8%	51%
AA 1209 American Flight history →	ORD 22:30	LAX 00:52	25%	6%	0.9%	53%
F9 2445 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 21:13	LAX 23:57	26%	11%	1.3%	65%
AA 2364 American Flight history →	ORD 19:08	LAX 21:33	31%	9%	0.8%	59%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	ORD 12:56 → DEN 14:46UA 1150	57m Denver	DEN 15:43 → LAX 17:15UA 1195	6h 19m	91%	77%
American Details →	ORD 05:16 → PHX 07:06AA 769	54m Phoenix	PHX 08:00 → LAX 09:34AA 1892	6h 18m	84%	68%
American Details →	ORD 05:00 → PHX 06:32AA 2434	47m Phoenix	PHX 07:19 → LAX 08:57AA 2972	5h 57m	81%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON