Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:33 pm at Chicago); 6 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 33%, against 14% on a calm day. Safest: AA 3561 at 19:59, 31%.

Nonstops today


AA 3561 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 19:59	LIT 21:59	31%	6%	0.4%	72%
UA 4542 United flown by GoJet Flight history →	ORD 21:26	LIT 23:18	35%	11%	0.3%	66%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Little Rock on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	ORD 17:45 → CLT 20:59AA 2917	1h 47m Charlotte	CLT 22:46 → LIT 23:56AA 3444 · flown by Envoy	6h 11m	87%	73%
American Details →	ORD 18:19 → DFW 20:56AA 1559	1h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:31 → LIT 23:50AA 3750 · flown by Envoy	5h 31m	85%	64%
Delta Details →	ORD 18:22 → ATL 21:39DL 2740	1h 26m Atlanta	ATL 23:05 → LIT 23:41DL 2083	5h 19m	82%	64%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	ORD 18:19 → DFW 20:56AA 1559	1h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:04 → LIT 23:23AA 3362 · flown by Envoy	5h 04m	69%	53%
American Details →	ORD 18:47 → CLT 21:59AA 689	47m Charlotte	CLT 22:46 → LIT 23:56AA 3444 · flown by Envoy	5h 09m	44%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON