Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 4745 at 14:59 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 4745 ORD 14:59 → MCI 16:50 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 6399 ORD 17:30 → MCI 19:14 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4745 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 14:59	MCI 16:50	7%	3%	0.6%	87%
UA 1484 United Flight history →	ORD 08:40	MCI 10:29	8%	3%	0.5%	86%
AA 3695 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 22:35	MCI 00:19	8%	2%	0.7%	69%
UA 6005 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 06:55	MCI 08:42	8%	4%	0.6%	87%
AA 6250 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 06:45	MCI 08:32	9%	3%	0.6%	75%
OO 5717 SkyWest	ORD 07:16	MCI 08:52	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 6349 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 06:56	MCI 08:30	11%	4%	0.6%	95%
UA 561 United Flight history →	ORD 12:40	MCI 14:20	11%	4%	0.5%	80%
UA 1764 United	ORD 08:42	MCI 10:13	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 5218 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 10:25	MCI 12:22	12%	5%	0.6%	84%
UA 5997 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 10:54	MCI 12:40	12%	5%	0.6%	89%
OO 6197 SkyWest	ORD 10:23	MCI 12:05	13%	5%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3526 Envoy	ORD 14:01	MCI 15:34	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 6249 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 11:16	MCI 13:00	14%	6%	0.6%	76%
UA 1851 United Flight history →	ORD 20:05	MCI 21:54	15%	7%	0.5%	57%
UA 664 United Flight history →	ORD 15:52	MCI 17:36	18%	6%	0.5%	68%
UA 4723 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 21:25	MCI 23:17	18%	6%	0.7%	59%
OO 5644 SkyWest	ORD 14:36	MCI 16:22	19%	7%	0.6%	no record
AA 6399 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 17:30	MCI 19:14	22%	9%	0.7%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON