Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 284 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–40%.

Safest bet that day UA 284 ORD 06:00 → MCO 09:40 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 486 ORD 17:12 → MCO 21:05 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 284 United Flight history →	ORD 06:00	MCO 09:40	6%	2%	0.8%	95%
UA 2280 United Flight history →	ORD 07:20	MCO 11:15	7%	3%	0.8%	89%
UA 1643 United Flight history →	ORD 09:12	MCO 13:13	10%	4%	0.8%	85%
AA 2067 American Flight history →	ORD 06:59	MCO 10:47	10%	3%	1.2%	94%
AA 1645 American	ORD 06:52	MCO 10:34	14%	3%	1.0%	no record
UA 2008 United Flight history →	ORD 11:00	MCO 15:03	14%	5%	0.9%	75%
AA 2066 American Flight history →	ORD 10:30	MCO 14:20	16%	5%	1.0%	69%
F9 2792 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 10:16	MCO 14:23	17%	6%	1.3%	74%
AA 1782 American Flight history →	ORD 11:57	MCO 15:39	18%	6%	1.9%	80%
AA 1661 American	ORD 11:08	MCO 14:58	18%	5%	1.3%	no record
AA 2089 American Flight history →	ORD 12:01	MCO 15:51	18%	6%	1.9%	54%
UA 1811 United Flight history →	ORD 12:45	MCO 16:43	22%	9%	1.2%	78%
UA 609 United Flight history →	ORD 14:00	MCO 17:57	26%	9%	1.0%	76%
AA 3176 American Flight history →	ORD 18:45	MCO 22:40	33%	13%	2.1%	53%
UA 1382 United Flight history →	ORD 17:56	MCO 21:55	33%	15%	1.0%	64%
F9 3044 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 17:13	MCO 21:25	34%	16%	2.7%	73%
AA 2064 American Flight history →	ORD 15:08	MCO 19:03	39%	10%	1.3%	55%
AA 486 American Flight history →	ORD 17:12	MCO 21:05	40%	14%	1.3%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON