Today: YX 3544 at 10:47 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–33%.

Safest bet today YX 3544 ORD 10:47 → MDT 13:53 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1448 ORD 19:17 → MDT 22:06 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 3544 Republic	ORD 10:47	MDT 13:53	8%	2%	0.2%	no record
YX 4802 Republic	ORD 11:40	MDT 14:37	8%	2%	0.2%	no record
YX 4799 Republic	ORD 16:24	MDT 19:21	11%	4%	0.2%	no record
AA 4640 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 21:18	MDT 00:22	12%	3%	0.7%	80%
UA 5581 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 06:52	MDT 09:42	15%	3%	0.3%	77%
AA 1672 American	ORD 08:27	MDT 11:29	16%	3%	0.2%	no record
UA 4798 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 10:29	MDT 13:34	18%	7%	0.2%	77%
UA 1746 United Flight history →	ORD 13:57	MDT 16:56	19%	5%	0.2%	71%
UA 533 United	ORD 14:09	MDT 17:06	21%	6%	0.2%	no record
AA 3243 American Flight history →	ORD 16:00	MDT 19:05	25%	8%	0.2%	75%
UA 1719 United	ORD 18:24	MDT 21:12	29%	8%	0.7%	no record
AA 1448 American	ORD 19:17	MDT 22:06	33%	10%	2.1%	no record
UA 4173 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 16:40	MDT 19:48	26%	15%	2.8%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON