tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1358 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 1358 ORD 07:00 → MIA 11:24 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 2690 ORD 17:59 → MIA 22:20 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time
Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
UA 1358 United Flight history → ORD 07:00 MIA 11:24 6% 3% 0.6% 85%
AA 2984 American Flight history → ORD 05:00 MIA 09:09 6% 2% 1.2% 94%
AA 1380 American Flight history → ORD 06:10 MIA 10:22 7% 2% 1.0% 89%
AA 2452 American Flight history → ORD 06:10 MIA 10:16 7% 2% 1.0% 96%
AA 1252 American ORD 05:40 MIA 09:46 8% 2% 1.0% no record
AA 835 American Flight history → ORD 06:59 MIA 11:12 9% 3% 1.0% 81%
UA 1620 United Flight history → ORD 10:33 MIA 14:57 10% 4% 0.6% 77%
AA 1875 American Flight history → ORD 07:08 MIA 11:17 10% 3% 1.0% 88%
AA 1250 American Flight history → ORD 08:30 MIA 12:45 11% 3% 1.0% 75%
UA 2180 United Flight history → ORD 18:05 MIA 22:27 13% 6% 0.6% 69%
AA 2689 American ORD 10:07 MIA 14:20 13% 3% 1.0% no record
AA 1474 American Flight history → ORD 10:05 MIA 14:18 14% 4% 1.0% 82%
AA 3148 American Flight history → ORD 14:29 MIA 18:48 22% 5% 1.0% 51%
AA 2690 American Flight history → ORD 17:59 MIA 22:20 22% 6% 0.9% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON