Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:18 pm at Chicago); 4 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 17:54, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching Missoula on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Missoula on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Missoula is 1 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORD 17:54 → MSP 19:31DL 1306	2h 21m Minneapolis	MSP 21:52 → MSO 23:44DL 2610	6h 50m	94%	71%
United Details →	ORD 14:33 → DEN 16:31UA 2803	2h 59m Denver	DEN 19:30 → MSO 21:39UA 1092	8h 06m	94%	69%
United Details →	ORD 14:30 → LAX 17:05UA 374	3h 15m Los Angeles	LAX 20:20 → MSO 23:56UA 5370 · flown by SkyWest	10h 26m	100%	54%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	ORD 15:43 → SEA 18:22AS 407	1h 14m Seattle	SEA 19:36 → MSO 22:01AS 604	7h 18m	71%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON