Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 13–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 3733 ORD 09:00 → MYR 12:22 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest UA 1332 ORD 11:00 → MYR 14:19 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3733 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 09:00	MYR 12:22	13%	2%	0.7%	95%
YX 3526 Republic	ORD 12:15	MYR 15:39	14%	2%	0.4%	no record
UA 1332 United Flight history →	ORD 11:00	MYR 14:19	18%	4%	0.2%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON