Today: UA 5999 at 12:45 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–28%.

Safest bet today UA 5999 ORD 12:45 → OKC 15:17 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 6487 ORD 18:29 → OKC 20:49 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5999 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 12:45	OKC 15:17	17%	6%	0.7%	83%
OO 414 SkyWest	ORD 09:14	OKC 11:33	19%	7%	0.5%	no record
AA 6337 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 12:08	OKC 14:43	20%	9%	0.6%	64%
AA 6204 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 08:16	OKC 10:34	21%	6%	0.5%	77%
MQ 4170 Envoy	ORD 09:46	OKC 12:03	21%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 435 SkyWest	ORD 13:32	OKC 15:50	23%	9%	0.6%	no record
OO 5363 SkyWest	ORD 15:39	OKC 17:57	24%	8%	0.6%	no record
UA 1440 United	ORD 20:33	OKC 22:43	24%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 4766 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 15:35	OKC 18:05	25%	8%	0.6%	73%
AA 6274 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 16:30	OKC 18:52	25%	9%	0.7%	69%
UA 5392 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 19:45	OKC 22:17	25%	9%	0.7%	73%
AA 6493 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 18:01	OKC 20:13	28%	10%	0.7%	60%
AA 6481 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 16:06	OKC 18:20	28%	9%	0.6%	62%
AA 6487 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 18:29	OKC 20:49	28%	10%	0.6%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON