Today: AA 4724 at 16:05 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–29%.

Safest bet today AA 4724 ORD 16:05 → OMA 17:55 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest OO 5744 ORD 10:50 → OMA 12:37 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4724 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 16:05	OMA 17:55	8%	2%	0.6%	85%
AA 4042 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 14:08	OMA 15:55	9%	2%	0.6%	74%
AA 3738 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 17:30	OMA 19:18	10%	3%	0.6%	79%
MQ 3558 Envoy	ORD 17:41	OMA 19:37	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1778 United Flight history →	ORD 08:40	OMA 10:27	15%	3%	0.4%	87%
AA 3739 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 09:30	OMA 11:18	16%	2%	0.6%	89%
UA 247 United Flight history →	ORD 12:40	OMA 14:17	18%	5%	0.5%	78%
UA 2207 United Flight history →	ORD 15:47	OMA 17:28	20%	5%	0.5%	72%
AA 3334 American Flight history →	ORD 22:52	OMA 00:38	24%	7%	0.8%	32%
OO 5638 SkyWest	ORD 18:10	OMA 19:55	25%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 2336 United	ORD 21:15	OMA 22:47	25%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 3198 American Flight history →	ORD 23:00	OMA 00:37	25%	6%	0.8%	45%
UA 5777 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 18:00	OMA 19:49	27%	8%	0.6%	57%
UA 5589 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 10:25	OMA 12:16	29%	7%	0.3%	76%
OO 5744 SkyWest	ORD 10:50	OMA 12:37	29%	7%	0.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON