tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:45, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Ontario on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 658 United Flight history → ORD 20:18 ONT 22:51 20% 8% 0.6% 60%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ORD 06:00 → DEN 07:42UA 2806 3h 43m Denver DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430 8h 47m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → ORD 07:45 → SLC 10:15DL 2231 1h 06m Salt Lake City SLC 11:21 → ONT 12:10DL 3172 6h 25m 93% 83%
UnitedDetails → ORD 06:10 → SFO 08:47UA 246 1h 53m San Francisco SFO 10:40 → ONT 12:12UA 2661 8h 02m 99% 78%
AmericanDetails → ORD 05:14 → PHX 07:05AA 769 3h 45m Phoenix PHX 10:50 → ONT 12:25AA 2661 9h 11m 97% 77%
UnitedDetails → ORD 14:30 → SFO 17:19UA 1577 3h 41m San Francisco SFO 21:00 → ONT 22:37UA 552 10h 07m 97% 75%
DeltaDetails → ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264 52m Atlanta ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665 7h 08m 92% 74%
AmericanDetails → ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760 3h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:44 → ONT 12:06AA 2956 9h 06m 99% 73%
UnitedDetails → ORD 14:15 → IAH 17:20UA 2451 3h 11m Houston IAH 20:31 → ONT 21:55UA 1563 9h 40m 98% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → ORD 19:40 → SLC 22:11DL 2376 48m Salt Lake City SLC 22:59 → ONT 23:48DL 1614 6h 08m 74% 63%
AmericanDetails → ORD 14:25 → PHX 16:09AA 1384 55m Phoenix PHX 17:04 → ONT 18:18AA 2639 5h 53m 70% 46%
AmericanDetails → ORD 14:59 → DFW 17:35AA 2257 1h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:50 → ONT 19:59AA 2236 7h 00m 75% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON