Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:36 pm at Chicago); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 18:22, is the safest bet: 48% chance of reaching West Palm Beach on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 51% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach West Palm Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (West Palm Beach is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORD 18:22 → ATL 21:39DL 2740	1h 20m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → PBI 00:51 +1DL 1065	5h 29m	86%	48%
American Details →	ORD 17:45 → CLT 20:59AA 2917	1h 57m Charlotte	CLT 22:56 → PBI 00:51 +1AA 1764	6h 06m	94%	45%
United Details →	ORD 15:57 → EWR 19:33UA 2171	46m Newark	EWR 20:19 → PBI 23:28UA 2650	6h 31m	75%	31%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	ORD 16:45 → CLT 19:59AA 1683	51m Charlotte	CLT 20:50 → PBI 22:44AA 1912	4h 59m	71%	34%
American Details →	ORD 15:43 → PHL 19:04AA 2840	46m Philadelphia	PHL 19:50 → PBI 22:40AA 3145	5h 57m	51%	28%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON