Today: UA 1554 at 13:44 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–26%.

Safest bet today UA 1554 ORD 13:44 → PDX 16:12 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AS 325 ORD 14:12 → PDX 16:47 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 1554 United Flight history →	ORD 13:44	PDX 16:12	16%	6%	0.2%	81%
UA 2817 United Flight history →	ORD 13:30	PDX 15:57	16%	5%	0.1%	81%
UA 2738 United Flight history →	ORD 19:55	PDX 22:30	17%	5%	0.2%	69%
UA 2243 United	ORD 20:07	PDX 22:39	18%	5%	0.2%	no record
UA 1677 United Flight history →	ORD 16:15	PDX 18:47	19%	6%	0.2%	57%
AA 2977 American Flight history →	ORD 21:27	PDX 00:12	25%	6%	0.3%	52%
AA 966 American	ORD 17:07	PDX 19:54	26%	8%	0.2%	no record
AS 325 Alaska Flight history →	ORD 14:12	PDX 16:47	31%	7%	0.4%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON