Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 21 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2038 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–26%.

Safest bet that day UA 2038 ORD 07:15 → PHL 10:30 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 1848 ORD 17:07 → PHL 20:25 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2038 United Flight history →	ORD 07:15	PHL 10:30	8%	3%	0.6%	89%
AA 2970 American Flight history →	ORD 05:00	PHL 08:05	9%	4%	0.7%	90%
UA 2856 United	ORD 06:55	PHL 10:03	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 729 United Flight history →	ORD 09:02	PHL 12:10	14%	4%	0.6%	92%
UA 2182 United Flight history →	ORD 11:33	PHL 14:47	15%	5%	0.6%	79%
AA 1725 American	ORD 08:36	PHL 11:53	15%	5%	1.8%	no record
AA 471 American Flight history →	ORD 06:36	PHL 09:49	16%	3%	1.3%	80%
AA 2115 American Flight history →	ORD 06:37	PHL 09:48	16%	3%	1.2%	76%
UA 1744 United Flight history →	ORD 21:45	PHL 00:57	18%	6%	0.6%	74%
UA 2430 United Flight history →	ORD 14:30	PHL 17:52	19%	8%	0.6%	69%
UA 1776 United Flight history →	ORD 17:59	PHL 21:19	19%	9%	0.6%	61%
UA 2825 United Flight history →	ORD 16:18	PHL 19:34	20%	7%	0.6%	69%
AA 490 American Flight history →	ORD 21:45	PHL 00:59	22%	7%	1.8%	56%
AA 1859 American Flight history →	ORD 13:32	PHL 16:49	22%	6%	1.3%	68%
AA 2443 American Flight history →	ORD 18:40	PHL 21:58	22%	11%	1.3%	59%
F9 2112 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 07:40	PHL 10:58	23%	6%	0.9%	62%
AA 830 American	ORD 13:27	PHL 16:41	24%	7%	1.3%	no record
AA 2819 American Flight history →	ORD 15:29	PHL 18:47	25%	9%	1.3%	59%
AA 2840 American Flight history →	ORD 15:42	PHL 19:05	25%	9%	1.3%	71%
AA 1743 American Flight history →	ORD 17:20	PHL 20:31	25%	10%	1.3%	74%
AA 1848 American Flight history →	ORD 17:07	PHL 20:25	26%	11%	1.3%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON